Why the Canadiens Will Make

the Playoffs in 2024/25.

Before I begin I must own up to the fact that I am a homer. I have been a fan of le bleu, blanc et rouge since my parents first let me change channels on the TV and I discovered hockey in 1967. I liked the uniforms and the name even though I knew nothing about the sport or the city. I knew I loved the speed and intensity of the physical play. I was quickly hooked and watched hockey whenever possible, but being from Columbus, Ohio, those chances dwindled over the years as network TV stopped carrying it.

I followed in the papers as best I could and when the NHL came back to TV on cable it was Nirvana. I could watch my beloved habs every game. I celebrated in '86 and suffered in '89. I never imagined when my two favorite teams, the Canadiens and the Cowboys, won championships in '93 both would go on thirty year streaks without a championship. (yeah, I have written off the Cowboys until they jettison Dak Prescott, so it will be at least 30 years for them)

I felt like I might be overly optimistic about the habs chances this year so I did some research to temper my expectations. What I found only made me more optimistic.

There are plenty of reasons for fans of les habitants to be hopeful for a playoff spot this year and I will offer them now.

Montembault is underrated. His line last year looks rather unimpressive, with only 16 wins in 41 games played and a pedestrian goals against average of 3.14 vs the league average of 2.91 goals against. This is a case that demonstrates that stats don't always paint a clear picture.

When you look at the facts behind the stats his numbers look much better. His save % of .903 is exactly the league average last year, meaning his higher GAA was due to facing more shots (32.28 per game) than the NHL average of 30.1 SA.

Montembault put up average save percentage numbers behind a team full of rookie defensemen and goal-challenged forwards. Montembault's numbers WILL improve for three reasons.

The team as a whole is improving. While the last three years have been dismal there has been a steady progression, despite a never ending injury list.

Total points, goals for and goals against are all trending in the right direction. I expect more of the same this year under Martin St Louis' steady guidance.

The second reason is a year of experience for this very young defense. I would not be at all surprised if it gets even younger this year. I could see Reinbacher and Mailloux moving to the big club this year. In habs fans wildest dreams Hutson will be there too. It will be even more inexperienced, but much more talented as well.

Last year the habs scored first 41 times. They lost 14 of those games in regulation and another 6 in shoot outs. Clearly the defense wasn't good enough to hold leads. Whether by more experience for the veterans or by more talent from the rookies the defense will be better.

That brings us to the forwards. Montreal yielded the first goal 41 times as well. The results in those games are just as telling. Montreal only won 11 of those games in regulation or OT and another 2 in shoot outs. That means Montreal spent much more time chasing the lead, taking chances and failing to protect the net. More scoring from the forwards would correct both of those problems.

The forwards WILL be better this year. At the beginning of last season I lamented that Juraj wasn't playing like a big man. Later in the season he figured out how to use his body and will be even better this year. When I watched him in the last half of the season the name Brendan Shanahan kept coming to mind for some reason.

I envision a power play with combinations of Dach, Slafkovsky and Laine playing in front of the net. The other teams will have to deploy big men against them, meaning that the goalies will be surrounded by trees. In addition to obscuring the goalies vision it will open up more room for Suzuki, Caufield and the point men to work their magic. Scoring on the PP should improve.

There are 3 x-factors at the forward position and their performance could make or break the team. A healthy Kirby Dach should make a big difference and Joshua Roy should add some additional speed on the outside. If Patrik Laine returns to his old form then Montreal shouldn't be playing catch up as much and won't be exposing Montembault as much. I expect his GAA to drop to about 2.8 or less.

When the habs got behind last year they started pushing and the young defense wasn't experienced enough to deal with the numerous breakaways and odd man rushes that resulted from playing catch up hockey. Being behind less will mean less high quality scoring chances and Montembault's save percentage will appreciate it.

So there you have it. Montreal WILL be a better team, I think a much better team. Will it be good enough to break into the Atlantic Division's top three? Only time will tell, but I think they will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

Scott Lineback August 28, 2024